Studies of Political Order and Political Change in the Middle East / 世論調査による中東地域の政治秩序と変革の実証研究

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B) 15H03308 (2015-2018) / 平成27年〜30年度科学研究費助成事業(基盤研究(B) 15H03308)

Summary / 研究概要

This study understands through public opinion surveys what kind of political order is sought by those living in the countries involved in conflicts who are caught in a dilemma between political freedom and the maintenance of order under Arab countries in 2010’s where large-scale conflicts were caused due to the political change that had been originally expected to encourage “Democratization”. Those people experienced “The Arab Spring” are not necessarily satisfied with the government of their respective countries that have been making efforts to resolve social uncertainties and economic issues through its public policies. Some of the people might make a commitment or become sympathetic to an anti-establishment thought or a radical belief pursuing the revolutionary solution due to their dislike of individual policies of their government and their disappearing political ideals because of them. In this context, this project will conduct opinion surveys with focusing on the following two themes: (1) an empirical analysis of people’s support of the regime as well as political parties and sections; and (2) an analysis of factors making people seek a chance to change in the political order.

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本研究は「民主化」と思われていたはずの政治変動が、大規模な紛争を引き起こすという2010年代のアラブ諸国において、紛争当事国に暮らす人々が政治的自由と秩序維持の板挟み状態にあって、いかなる政治秩序を求めているのかを世論調査で把握する。「アラブの春」を経験した一般民衆は政策による社会不安や経済問題の解消を目指す各国政府に対し、必ずしも満足してはいない。中には個別の政策に対する反発や政治的理想との乖離によって、反体制思想あるいは革命的解決を求める過激思想に傾倒ないし共感することもあり得る。そこで本計画は、(1)政権・政党・党派支持の実証分析、および(2)政治秩序の変革を求める要因の分析、という二つのテーマに焦点を当てて研究を遂行する。

Members / 研究構成員

Principal Investigator / 研究代表者

Co-Investigators / 研究分担者

  • Yutaka TAKAOKA (Chief Research Fellow, Middle East Institute of Japan) / 髙岡豊(財団法人中東調査会上席研究員)
  • Dai YAMAO (Associate Professor, Faculty of Social and Cultural Studies, Kyushu University) / 山尾大(九州大学大学院比較社会文化研究院准教授)

Research Collaborators / 研究協力者

  • Hiroyuki AOYAMA (Professor, Institute of Global Studies, Tokyo University of Foreign Studies) / 青山弘之(東京外国語大学大学院総合国際学研究院教授)
  • Masaki MIZOBUCHI (Associate Professor, Faculty of Economics, Nagoya University of Commerce and Business) / 溝渕正季(名古屋商科大学経済学部准教授)

Outcomes / 研究成果

Meetings / 研究会合

First Meeting / 第1回研究会合

  • Date / 開催日 :  May 16, 2015 / 2015年5月16日
  • Place / 会場 : Doshisha University / 同志社大学
  • Proceedings / 議事 :  Shingo HAMANAKA, “Keynote Report and Research Plan”  / 浜中新吾「基調報告および今後の計画」

Colloquium in Political Science, Ryukoku University (Research Presentation) / 龍谷大学 政治学コロキアム(研究発表)

Updated in April 2016 / 2016年4月更新